Storm Prediction Center Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Page (2024)

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 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240900 SPC AC 240900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Saturday - Southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes... An active severe thunderstorm episode appears possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains, as a shortwave trough and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspread a generally warm and moist warm sector. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southwest KS, with a dryline extending southward into west TX. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline, and potentially farther north/east within a moderate to strongly unstable and weakly capped warm sector. Strong deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. There is some potential for rather early initiation and evolution toward a complex convective mode with time, but any supercells within this regime could become tornadic as low-level shear/SRH notably increases during the afternoon/evening. A 30% area has been added from south-central/southeast KS into OK and north TX, where confidence is currently greatest regarding storm development within the favorable environment described above. A separate regime of severe potential could evolve from eastern IA toward the upper Great Lakes, associated with the departing shortwave trough and surface low. While this system will gradually be weakening with time, storms could redevelop during the afternoon within a moist and weakly capped environment, with deep-layer shear remaining sufficiently strong for organized convection. Late in the period, extensive convection that initially develops over the central/southern Plains could also spread into parts of IA/IL/WI, with some severe potential. ...D5/Sunday - ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest... A corridor of organized severe potential could again evolve from the ArkLaTex into the upper Midwest on D5/Sunday, as the strong shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the central Plains towards the upper Great Lakes. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear could support a mix of supercells and stronger storm clusters, though details remain uncertain at this time. ...D6/Monday - ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley... Some severe threat could linger into D6/Monday across the ArkLaTex region into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture transport persists near the remnant frontal zone. However, in the wake of the departing upper trough, convection may tend to be less organized compared to previous days. ..Dean.. 04/24/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT